Oil Spill Modeling

Oil spill modeling simulates the movement and weathering of a slick to support response planning and contingency design. Trajectory models advect the surface oil with wind drift (typically 3% to 3.5% of wind speed), surface currents, and Stokes drift, while a coupled oil-budget module tracks evaporation, emulsification, natural dispersion, and shoreline stranding. Tools such as NOAA’s GNOME and ADIOS, and operational systems like OpenOil, output predicted slick position, mass balance, and beaching probability. Outputs feed sensitivity-index mapping and NEBA decisions. Accuracy depends on the wind and current forcing and on oil-property inputs, so hindcast verification against observed slicks is standard practice.