DNV ETO (Energy Transition Outlook)

The DNV Energy Transition Outlook (ETO) is DNV’s annual scenario forecast of the global energy system, with a shipping-specific volume, the Maritime Forecast to 2050, that models how the fleet will decarbonize. The 2025 edition projects the maritime sector cutting CO2 emissions by 77% by 2050, short of net zero, driven by demand levelling off from the 2030s, efficiency gains, low-GHG fuels, and onboard carbon capture handling about 4% of fossil-fuel emissions by 2042. The forecast is calibrated to the IMO Net-Zero Framework and is a single-scenario best estimate, not an advocacy target. Owners use it for fleet and fuel-pathway planning.